Volume 6, Issue 1, March 2021, Page: 1-9
Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic with Treatment
Abayneh Fentie Bezabih, Department of Mathematics, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
Geremew Kenassa Edessa, Department of Mathematics, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
Koya Purnachandra Rao, Department of Mathematics, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
Received: Nov. 10, 2020;       Accepted: Nov. 25, 2020;       Published: Jan. 12, 2021
DOI: 10.11648/j.mma.20210601.11      View  10      Downloads  19
Abstract
In this paper, Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic is formulated and discussed. The positivity, boundedness, and existence of the solutions of the model equations are stated and proved. The Disease-free equilibrium point & endemic equilibrium points are identified. Stability Analysis of the model is done with the concept of Next generation matrix. we have investigated that Disease-free equilibrium point (DFEP) of the model is locally asymptotically stable if α≤β+δ+μ & unstable if α>β+δ+μ, The basic reproduction number (threshold value) R0 is the largest eigen value in spectral radius matrix ρ. Thus, eigen values of spectral radius Matrix ρ are determined from the roots of characteristic polynomial equation, det[ρ-λI]=0, Hence, the basic reproduction number is R0=α / β. It is shown that if reproduction number is less than one, then COVID-19 cases will be reduced in the community. However, if reproduction number is greater than one, then covid-19 continue to persist in the Community. Lastly, numerical simulations are done with DEDiscover 2.6.4. Software. It is observed that with Constant treatment, increase or decrease contact rate among persons leads great variation on the basic reproduction number which is directly implies that infection rate plays a vital role on decline or persistence of COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords
COVID-19, PANDEMIC, Model, Stability, Next Generation Matrix, Reproduction Number, Simulation
To cite this article
Abayneh Fentie Bezabih, Geremew Kenassa Edessa, Koya Purnachandra Rao, Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic with Treatment, Mathematical Modelling and Applications. Vol. 6, No. 1, 2021, pp. 1-9. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20210601.11
Copyright
Copyright © 2021 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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