Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Household Products’ Prices (A Case Study of Nyeri County)
Muriuki Brian Muriithi,
Waiguru Samuel
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, March 2023
Pages:
1-12
Received:
17 March 2022
Accepted:
31 January 2023
Published:
22 May 2023
Abstract: Inflation has a significant impact on both consumable and non-consumable products and plays a critical role in determining the cost of living. The study aimed to investigate the trend of household consumable and non-consumable prices over the past three years and identify the best ARIMA model for future price predictions. The results showed that consumable goods played a greater role in determining the national inflation compared to non-consumable goods. A relationship was found between the changes in local-level prices and national monthly inflation rates, with consumable goods being fitted to an ARIMA (1,2,2) model and national inflation rates to ARIMA (3,1,0). Non-consumable goods were found to be a white noise. The models were found to be adequate in forecasting changes in prices, with their validity confirmed by the Box-Ljung test and autocorrelation coefficients of model residuals. This study demonstrated the importance of analyzing changes in products’ prices at a local level and how it affects the national inflation rate. In future, similar studies can be carried out in different counties and with a more comprehensive model to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of household consumable and non-consumable goods at the local level.
Abstract: Inflation has a significant impact on both consumable and non-consumable products and plays a critical role in determining the cost of living. The study aimed to investigate the trend of household consumable and non-consumable prices over the past three years and identify the best ARIMA model for future price predictions. The results showed that co...
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Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of the Factors Associated with Targeted Cells, Virus-Producing Cells, and Infected Cells
Kubugha Wilcox Bunonyo,
Liberty Ebiwareme
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, March 2023
Pages:
13-19
Received:
28 June 2023
Accepted:
14 July 2023
Published:
24 July 2023
Abstract: Mathematical modeling and simulation of the effective parameters in targeted, virus-producing, and infected cells were carried out. The research involved mathematical models that represent the targeted cell population, the virus-producing cell population, and the infected cell population, respectively. The numerical simulation was carried out using Wolfram Mathematica, version 12, where the pertinent parameters in the various models were varied within a specified range to study their effect on the dynamic system. The simulated results revealed that the production of the target infected cells, the elimination rate of infected cells, the elimination rate of virus cells, the elimination rate of tissue cells, the infected cell rate constant, and the constant rate of infection affect the various cell populations. The novelty of this research is the fact that the interaction between macrophage and other cells was modeled and direct numerical simulation was carried out to ascertain the effect of pertinent parameters on the system using Wolfram Mathematica. The results revealed that the production rate of tissue and infected cells affects the targeted tissue cells growth, the elimination rate affects the rate of infected cells, and the infected cell rate constant also affects the dynamic system. In addition, the virus’s increase per infected cell affects the system, and finally, the elimination rate of tissue cell affects the system.
Abstract: Mathematical modeling and simulation of the effective parameters in targeted, virus-producing, and infected cells were carried out. The research involved mathematical models that represent the targeted cell population, the virus-producing cell population, and the infected cell population, respectively. The numerical simulation was carried out using...
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